Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The military government is conducting a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a coup, which sparked massive protests and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for interfering with or opposing the election under a new law which imposes severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to boycott the polls.

The army has been engaged on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year following relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the junta can change their approach if the results in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has called for negotiations to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative told a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".